I’m going to start this with a caveat; the scientific consensus is that human caused climate change is real, it is happening and it is happening fast. The consensus is not just scientists agreeing; it is multiple, independent studies carried out by multiple institutions over decades that have all come to the same conclusions and, when those studies have been examined by other experts, have been found to be of sound methodology and the results agree with the data. Next, this is based on a report that was commissioned by the current Labour government. It was conducted by both MI5 and MI6; the governments own national and international security apparatus, and the report is their threat assessment of climate change. The report was so damning and so severe that the government tried to bury it as not only were the conclusions extremely dire but, according to a recent article in The Canary, it also highlights the government’s complete failure to act. It took a fierce freedom of information battle to get something released, but what was released is not the full report; it is a watered down version of it.
The joint security services climate change threat assessment report identifies six critical ecosystems around the world that are crucial to the survival of the UK. Whilst there are lots of ecosystems that are important to us, the assessment highlights these as if any one or two of these collapse, it would be devastating for the UK. The ecosystems are:
The Amazon Rainforest, the Congo Basin, the coral reefs and the mangroves of South East Asia, the Himalayas, the boreal forests of Russia and the boreal forests of Canada. These are all places that either directly supply our food chain or resource chain or are critical for our survival through oxygen release, carbon storage or controlling weather systems etc. The report sates that there is a strong possibility (around a 40% to 50% chance) that some of these ecosystems will begin total collapse by 2030 and the remainder by 2050. It needs to be emphasised that the possibility refers to the timescale. The actual collapses are guaranteed without significant intervention. Due to cumulative effects of the contributory factors, the timescales have relatively large uncertainties, but as pointed out in the report, this shouldn’t be taken to mean that it is farther away; it could be, but it also may be much closer. We may have already entered one or more ecosystem collapses without knowing it as the results may not begin to manifest for several years.
Along with these imminent collapses, the report also highlights that it is likely that we are already in the middle of the sixth great extinction; since 1970, vertebrate species population size has decreased by 68% whilst freshwater species population size has decreased by 84%. The total average including invertebrates is a decline of 73%. The rate of extinction is tens to hundreds of times higher than the average of the last 10 million years! It should be noted that food production is the biggest causal factor in biodiversity loss.
What does this actually mean for us in terms of threat?The report highlights the treat very clearly; crop failures, intensified natural disasters, infectious disease outbreaks, conflicts both within and between states, political instability and erosion of global economic prosperity.
We are already seeing a lot of this; political instability and conflicts around the world over resources like oil and natural gas. We are seeing increased rates and intensity of natural disasters and we are seeing repeated crop failures in the UK due to seasonal changes meaning either overly prolonged periods of rain or increasingly hot summers. The report goes further though, expanding on all of these issues, and I quote:
‘Migration will rise as development gains begin to reverse and more people are pushed into poverty, food and water insecurity. A one percentage increase in food insecurity in a population compels 1.9 percent more people to migrate.
Serious and Organised Crime will look to exploit and gain control over scarce resources. More people pushed into poverty will mean more opportunities for SOC to exploit (e.g. people trafficking and black markets in scarce food, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals).
Non-state actors including terrorist groups will have more opportunities resulting from political instability – e.g. acting as mercenaries or pseudo-governments. They may gain control over scarce resources.
State threats become more severe as some states become more exposed than others to food and water insecurity risks.
Pandemic risk will increase as biodiversity degrades, people move between countries and transfer of novel diseases between species becomes more likely.
Economic insecurity becomes more likely. Nature is a finite asset which underpins the global economy. It would take resources of 1.6 Earths to sustain the world’s current levels of consumption. The total annual value of ecosystem services to the UK was £87 billion in 2022 (3% of GDP).
Geopolitical competition will increase as countries compete for scarce resources including arable land, productive waters, safe transit routes and critical minerals.
Political polarisation and instability will grow in food and water insecure areas and as populations become more vulnerable to natural disasters. Disinformation will increase.
Conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land and food and water
resources. Existing conflicts will be exacerbated.’
What this is describing is that as the climate crisis worsens and ecosystems begin to collapse, access to food, water and other resources will become increasingly scarce even in currently wealthy areas of the world like the UK. This will lead to significantly higher rates of conflict, terrorism, authoritarianism and political misinformation as political parties try to control the narrative and the populace. As I said earlier, we are already seeing the beginnings of this and it will only get worse. Most of the political disinformation out there at the minute revolves around two things; migration… the reason why things are bad is because of people from other countries, and that climate change is a hoax and net zero needs to be scrapped.
Given the overwhelming and ever increasing amount of evidence that anthropogenic climate change is real, it’s happening now and it will lead to the collapse of everything we know with billions of deaths, ask yourself why would certain politicians lie to you.
The answer is very simple; look at their donors. Fossil fuel companies, international food monopolies, weapons manufacturers, venture capitalists with billions of dollars in housing stock… they all profit from this. All of them. And they donate to people who want to keep things the way they are. Once again, you are being lied to by people who want to continue profiting from destroying our lives and keeping us in the gutter. Once again, this is politics being used against the people.
So, does the report offer a way out? Yes it does. Just one. And it needs to be adopted immediately if we are to avoid this future. Whilst it does state that there are technologies that could help, all of these need significant research, development, time and money before they could be rolled out at scale and therefore, it is cheaper, quicker and more reliable to restore and protect these ecosystems. That’s it. That’s our way out; repair and protect our ecosystems.
What would this look like? Well, lets take the Amazon Rain Forrest as an example. It is predicted that the Amazon would face total ecosystem collapse at somewhere between 20% and 25% deforestation, though this estimate could be wrong, it could be more, but it could be less. The Amazon is currently at 17% deforestation so there is a chance that the collapse may have already started and we just won’t see the effects for a few years. How do we prevent this? We plant more trees. It sounds ridiculously simplistic but, the report gives a concrete example of doing exactly this working to restore an ecosystem:
In Malawi, an initiative was rolled out to restore the environment. They planted 20 million trees and rehabilitated 42 thousand hectares of degraded land. This has supported half a million people in the local area with improved access to water, diversified food production and jobs. The number of people in the area that depend upon humanitarian aid to survive has fallen by 60%. This shows that restoring these ecosystems works.
The next big question then is, how do we go about changing the path that we’re on? Reform, Restore and the Conservatives want to roll back net zero targets and the Labour government actively tried to bury the report that I’ve discussed. The Green Party on the other hand has a solid plan and a very well developed policy surrounding this. As with all Green Party policies, due to it being fully developed, it’s a very long document so I’ll highlight just a few areas that combat precisely what I’ve been discussing here.
The Green Party recognises that no matter what we do, at this point, some level of global disruption due to anthropogenic climate change is inevitable and that we are actually seeing this play out now in many areas of the world. They actually admit that there is a problem, which is always a good start. Additionally, they recognise that this is intrinsically linked with inequality; the biggest producers of emissions and ecosystem degradation are the richest in our societies but they are also the ones who pay the least and shift the blame on to the poorest in society. The idea of the carbon footprint was a lie sold by fossil fuel companies to shift the blame of their emissions on to us. Billions of annual flights, hundreds of thousands or millions of journeys from cargo ships with diesel engines larger than houses, logistics road transport ferrying all of the good, fossil fuelled power stations burning billions of tonnes of fuel… these are the polluters that need to be tackled. You and me driving to work in fuel efficient or electric cars are not the problem here; yes we do contribute to it, but our global contribution is a tiny percentage of the whole. If we all stopped driving tomorrow, it would make only a very small difference, but if industry stopped using fossil fuels tomorrow, climate change would be immediately halted in its tracks.
With regards to restoring ecosystems, the policy is to work with the international community and within our own borders to conserve and enhance carbon sinks including increasing forestry, restoring peatlands, repairing coastal and estuarine environments and tackling ocean acidification. In terms of human activity continuing to harm the environment, the policy is to decarbonise our energy infrastructure, cut all greenhouse gas emissions, not just carbon dioxide, and through other areas of policy, to decarbonise all other areas of industry. From a technological standpoint the policy is to further develop and roll out carbon capture initiatives to remove carbon from the atmosphere. It is estimated that just for the UK alone, we may have to remove up to a gigatonne of carbon per year for the next century to stop and partially reverse the effects of climate change.
The policy outlines in great detail how difficult achieving this will be, but between this policy and a whole host of other policies, describes how they will go about achieving this gargantuan goal in a fair and equitable way.
In summary, we are being lied to; conflict with Russia or China, along with race politics, division and hatred, it’s all a distraction so that the Epstein class can continue to exploit both us and the environment to maintain the status quo and continue to profit at the cost of the world we live in. Whilst some of those are threats, they are not the genuine, primary threat we face. The destruction of our environment is the real threat and it has already begun to show its effects. It will only get worse. Even if you don’t care about climate change, it is and will continue to effect, in increasing amounts, our economy, migration, conflict and the way we live our lives.
Another way to look at this for those of you who refuse to believe all of the evidence we have is this:
Either climate change is real or it is not. The potential worst outcomes of these two contradictory stances are:
If climate change is real and we do nothing, ultimately we become extinct after a prolonged period of immense suffering.
If climate change is not real and we invest billions, or hundreds of billions of pounds in to tackling it, then we don’t stop it because it is not real, but in the process, we would have created whole new industries, countless jobs, made energy far cheaper, insulated all of our homes, grown our economy, reduced conflict restored trust in politics, restored the natural environment to a semblance of it’s former beauty and massively, massively reduced inequality.
One of these worst case options leads to total ruination and the extinction of our species whilst the other worst case option improves our society and the way we live our lives beyond measure. Even if you do not believe in climate change, you need to be voting to tackle it. To not do so is beyond insane.
There is only one party that has a comprehensive plan to save us all from this very real threat, and that is the Green Party. It is time to stop being selfish. It is time to put racism, division and hate away; it’s just a distraction. It’s time to stop the cuckoldry to the ultra-wealthy. It is time for us all to come together for the good of all humanity. It is time to elect a Green government!
References.
Canary article into the burying of the climate threat assessment: https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2026/01/29/labour-party-hides-intelligence-report/
Joint security services climate threat assessment: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0eae719d837d69afc7de/National_security_assessment_-_global_biodiversity_loss__ecosystem_collapse_and_national_security.pdf
Green Party policy on the climate crisis (currently members only): https://policyarchive.greenparty.org.uk/policy/climate-emergency/
Join the Green Party of England and Wales: https://join.greenparty.org.uk/